Has the FIRE Formula Changed? Why 100% Index Funds Isn’t the Answer | Bigger Pockets Podcast
Is a 100% index fund portfolio no longer the FIRE formula? The market has changed, and maybe your portfolio allocation needs to change with it. With index funds at all-time-high prices and price-to-earnings ratios at an eye-watering 29, you might be feeling a bit worried about whether your FIRE will last or you’ll even make it to FIRE in the first place. You’re not crazy; Scott is feeling the same way, too.
Recently, Scott decided to make a move much of the FIRE community would protest—he sold 40% of his index fund portfolio to reallocate to real estate. Why did he do it now, even as a strong index fund believer? On the other hand, why is Mindy sticking with her stock and index fund portfolio, ready to ride out whatever potential market downturn could be coming our way?
Scott explains, in detail, why real estate is a better choice for him at the moment, the reason prudent FIRE chasers should question the conventional wisdom of a 100% index fund portfolio, and why his new rental property could act as a hedge against a significant market downturn. If Scott is selling his index funds, should you?
In This Episode We Cover
The historical price-to-earnings ratios making index funds a riskier bet
How holding 100% index funds could throw your FIRE off by a decade
The optimal portfolio for retiring early on the four percent rule
Is real estate a safer bet than stocks in 2025?
Real estate cash flow vs. selling stocks for income and why one is much easier to actualize
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Mindy on BiggerPockets
Scott on BiggerPockets
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BiggerPockets Money 599 - The Macro Analysis is Clear: Why We Are Reallocating (Away From Stocks) to Real Estate in 2025
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