Could New Builds Hurt Your Market? These Areas Are Most at Risk | Bigger Pockets Podcast

New builds are popping up everywhere. But some markets have a lot more new homes on the way. This could be risky for real estate investors in these areas, as steady demand and growing supply could put downward pressure on home and rent prices. Where are builders the most and least bullish in 2025, and which markets have so much supply that investors might want to steer clear? Today, we’re giving you a housing supply and inventory update.

Austin Wolff joins us again to share findings from the latest builder sentiment survey—how confident builders are in today’s housing market—and which markets they’re building the most (and least) in. This is crucial as an investor, whether you rent or flip, since supply is one factor investors can’t control.

Builder sentiment has seen a quick reversal from the 2020 - 2022 highs, but why are there still so many new development projects if builders are bearish? With permits finally getting approved, many builders are forced to complete projects, even during weaker market conditions, leading to lower prices for new build buyers and some dangerous “spillover” effects for investors in the market.

In This Episode We Cover

Why builder confidence has dropped so much, and why they can’t stop building (even with less profit)

Markets seeing the most new construction and potential downward pressure on home prices

Why now may be a great time to pick up a new build as developers give concessions

The simple formula you can use to see if your market has too much supply for demand

Could pessimistic builder conditions be better for appreciation in the long run?  

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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How to Save Up to 20% on New Construction Homes

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Austin's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab Dave’s Book, “Real Estate by the Numbers”

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