Is the 4% Rule Dead? (March 2025 Update) | Bigger Pockets Video

Episode #619

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Is the 4% rule dead? Most FIRE-chasers are using this retirement rule completely wrong, and it could cost them their financial freedom. With stock prices falling and many Americans fearing another recession, now is the time to tighten up your retirement portfolio and ensure you can survive if stock prices correct or crash. If you get this wrong, you could delay your FIRE for years or have to go back to work mid-retirement.

The 4% rule is one of the most bulletproof retirement formulas. It’s simple: Build a portfolio from which you can comfortably withdraw 4% annually. Need $40,000 per year to live? Your FIRE number is $1,000,000. Need $100,000 per year? Then you’re looking at $2,500,000. This math has been checked, double-checked, and triple-checked to withstand even the greatest economic depressions. However, most people have their portfolio set up WRONG, and it could put them at significant risk.

So, how do you ENSURE you can retire (early) with the 4% rule? What hedges should you make in your portfolio so your wealth stays afloat even as the economic tide starts to turn? What are Scott and Mindy doing now to prepare for a rocky stock market? Don’t miss this one—it could cost you your FIRE!

00:00: Is the 4% Rule Dead?
04:39 You CANNOT FIRE with This
11:42 How to Prepare for Downturns
21:12 Assets That Are At Risk
23:17 What Scott’s Buying/Selling
28:29 Alternatives to 4% Rule Portfolio
34:21 Do You Trust the 4% Rule?