What Happens When Rates REALLY Drop? Probably Not What You Think | Bigger Pockets Video

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Are we finally at the end stages of this harsh housing market? With housing inventory increasing, mortgage rates steadily falling, and inflation cooling, we might be returning to a much healthier time to buy a house. But one of these improvements we’ve seen over the past year could begin reversing, and that’s creating some interesting future scenarios. One that even we’re surprised to hear as we bring on top housing market analyst Logan Mohtashami.

Logan has referred to 2022-2023’s housing market as “savagely unhealthy,” but he’s a bit more optimistic now that we’re seeing relief. While we’re still not at 2019 inventory levels (which were already low), we’re slowly getting there. However, we could see the positive inventory trend start to reverse, leading to even more affordability problems for homebuyers. So what has to happen for affordability to see meaningful improvement?

Today, Logan is giving us his take on housing inventory, where mortgage rates could be heading, and why we may NOT see a spike in home prices even if rates fall significantly (something most analysts are bullish on).

00:00 Intro
00:58 The "Baby Pivot" Stage
04:33 The Home Sales Recession
07:36 Housing Inventory Update
14:17 Rates Will Decline MORE If...
18:47 Mortgage Rate Forecast
23:35 When Will Affordability Improve?
27:53 Biggest Takeaways